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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.80+5.14vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+5.78vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+0.67vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.37vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.78+6.91vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.63-0.50vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-1.28vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.35-1.66vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.02+2.31vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.16-2.76vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-2.67vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.08-1.23vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.77vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.33+0.61vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute0.94-3.52vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-4.12vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-0.81-1.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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4.67Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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5.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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12.91Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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6.5George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.72Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.34University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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12.31Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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8.24Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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11.77Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.23SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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15.61Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
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12.48Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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12.88Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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16.34William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia de Olazarra | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.9% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 14.1% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 6.1% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 2.7% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 1.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 27.3% | 29.8% |
| Evan Spalding | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 4.0% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 9.0% | 20.6% | 51.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.