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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.68vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.43vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.48vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.35+3.37vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54+1.81vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.80+0.01vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+1.55vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93+0.92vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.78+3.88vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.16-1.54vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute0.94+1.50vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-7.07vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.08-1.23vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.02-2.13vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.35-7.55vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.81-3.15vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.33-1.30vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-0.81-1.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.68George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.37University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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6.81Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.01U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.92Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.88Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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8.46Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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12.5Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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4.93Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.77Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.87Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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7.45SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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12.85Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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15.7Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
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16.35William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 4.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.0% | 14.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Alex Heim | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 5.4% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 28.2% | 32.0% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 21.8% | 50.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.