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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.57vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.63+4.67vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.80+3.06vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.93+4.94vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.26vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.35+1.52vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.16+1.20vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.22-3.37vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-0.44vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.81+6.51vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.54-4.05vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.02+0.40vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute0.94-0.78vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.72vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.81-2.19vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.08-3.99vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.33-1.30vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.78-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.67George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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8.94Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.52University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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8.2Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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4.63Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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16.51William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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6.95Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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12.4Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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12.22Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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7.28SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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12.81Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.01Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.7Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
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12.72Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.8% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Charles Carraway | 10.2% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.5% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 9.7% | 19.0% | 53.9% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% |
| Evan Spalding | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 4.6% |
| Asher Green | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 28.7% | 30.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 16.0% | 10.4% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.