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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+4.51vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.90+1.52vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.69+1.18vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine2.83+2.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley2.60+1.63vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy3.79-2.16vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+1.40vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University2.22-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii2.82-2.84vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.57-3.42vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego2.19-4.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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3.52Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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4.18Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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6.28University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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6.63University of California at Berkeley2.600.1%1st Place
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3.84California Poly Maritime Academy3.790.2%1st Place
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8.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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7.42Santa Clara University2.220.0%1st Place
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6.16University of Hawaii2.820.1%1st Place
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6.58University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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7.47University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie McBride | 7.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Mateo Vargas | 21.4% | 19.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Judge Ryan | 14.8% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jack Porter | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Cody Shevitz | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% |
| Sean Kelly | 19.1% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Maher | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 16.2% | 33.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 17.0% |
| Craig Schifferns | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% |
| Eric Alamillo | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.