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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.38+5.39vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.99vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.46+7.20vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.57+5.29vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University2.54+4.52vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12+1.18vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+5.11vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.54vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.18+2.06vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.65-0.66vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.94-2.96vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.59-6.23vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.68-4.16vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.63-5.15vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.84-6.78vs Predicted
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16Florida State University2.38-5.65vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii2.28-6.24vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.99St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.2Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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9.29Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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9.52North Carolina State University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.18Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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12.11Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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11.06Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.34Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.04Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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5.77Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.84George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.22Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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10.35Florida State University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.76University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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15.55SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reiter | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Walter Henry | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Scott Harris | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Jack Egan | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 10.2% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 7.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Jack Parkin | 13.0% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Henry Burnes | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Bastien Rasse | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 4.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 53.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.