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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+6.39vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.38+4.27vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.93vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.63+5.10vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.57+4.36vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.75+2.71vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.94+0.89vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.52vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.68-0.05vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.65-0.64vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.46-0.98vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91+0.43vs Predicted
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13Florida State University2.38-2.94vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University2.54-4.76vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-4.02vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.59-10.49vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii2.28-6.27vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.27Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.1Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.36Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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8.71Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.89Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.95George Washington University2.680.0%1st Place
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9.36Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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10.02Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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12.43Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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10.06Florida State University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.24North Carolina State University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.98Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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5.51Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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10.73University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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15.55SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| Matt Logue | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Walter Henry | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 12.0% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Scott Harris | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 5.7% |
| Jack Parkin | 13.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bastien Rasse | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 51.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.