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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University2.57+8.50vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.38+4.24vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+9.28vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.12+3.04vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.94+2.80vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University2.54+3.46vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.69vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.63+0.98vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+2.58vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.65-0.72vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.59-5.50vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.46-1.83vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.91-1.13vs Predicted
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14Florida State University2.38-4.16vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.75-6.47vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.68-7.00vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii2.28-6.30vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.5Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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6.24Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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12.28Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.04Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.8Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.46North Carolina State University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.98Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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9.28Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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5.5Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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10.17Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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11.87Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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9.84Florida State University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.53Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.0George Washington University2.680.0%1st Place
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10.7University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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15.53SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mowry | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 10.2% |
| Jack Egan | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Scott Harris | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 6.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Jack Parkin | 14.0% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 9.2% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Matt Logue | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Bastien Rasse | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 51.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.