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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.28+9.76vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.93+2.47vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.18+8.24vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.63+5.08vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.91+6.92vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.59-0.55vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.57+2.38vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University2.54+1.45vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+2.59vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.75-1.10vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.12vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.62-2.42vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.65-4.02vs Predicted
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14Florida State University2.38-4.11vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.68-6.07vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.76-0.30vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.46-6.92vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.94-10.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.76University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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4.47Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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11.24Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.08Fordham University2.630.0%1st Place
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11.92Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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5.45Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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9.38Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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9.45North Carolina State University2.540.0%1st Place
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11.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.9Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.58Georgetown University2.620.0%1st Place
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8.98Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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9.89Florida State University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.93George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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15.7SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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10.08Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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7.72Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.7% |
| Shawn Harvey | 15.1% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 4.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 9.4% |
| Jack Parkin | 12.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Scott Harris | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 6.8% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Edward Cook | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Matt Logue | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 54.0% |
| Walter Henry | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.