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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.57+6.87vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+2.79vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.34+5.56vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.85+2.57vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+4.53vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.35+2.46vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.02+2.11vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.37+1.41vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.48-0.88vs Predicted
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10University of Miami1.93+2.72vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79+0.43vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-1.28vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.27-4.09vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-2.69vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.44-2.29vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.06-7.58vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.83-6.55vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.42-6.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87U. S. Naval Academy2.577.5%1st Place
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4.79Stanford University3.3016.9%1st Place
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8.56Dartmouth College2.346.2%1st Place
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6.57Yale University2.859.1%1st Place
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9.53College of Charleston2.384.5%1st Place
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8.46Tulane University2.356.2%1st Place
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9.11Boston College2.025.0%1st Place
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9.41Brown University2.375.7%1st Place
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8.12Harvard University2.485.8%1st Place
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12.72University of Miami1.932.5%1st Place
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11.43St. Mary's College of Maryland1.793.2%1st Place
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10.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.133.9%1st Place
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8.91Georgetown University2.275.7%1st Place
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11.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.453.1%1st Place
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12.71George Washington University1.442.0%1st Place
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8.42Bowdoin College2.066.2%1st Place
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10.45Tufts University1.833.8%1st Place
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11.91University of Rhode Island1.422.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 16.9% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Blake Behrens | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 17.4% |
| Landon Cormie | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% |
| JJ Klempen | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 19.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Tyler Nash | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.