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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin2.65+7.49vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+3.57vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.80+5.06vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+2.78vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.78vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+4.71vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.00+0.30vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.71+0.20vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.50+0.46vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.65vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.15-4.09vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.75+0.06vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-4.23vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.54-4.78vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.68-6.51vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy1.29-2.37vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.41-3.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.49University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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5.57Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.06College of Charleston2.800.1%1st Place
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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7.78University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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7.3Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.2Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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9.46Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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8.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.91Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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12.06Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.77University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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9.22Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Santa Barbara2.680.1%1st Place
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13.63U. S. Naval Academy1.290.0%1st Place
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13.23University of Michigan1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Spencer | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brandon Geller | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Jake Vickers | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Alex Fasolo | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| James Paul | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Sophia Reineke | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Lilly Myers | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Jack Carminati | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 32.1% |
| Sherman Thompson | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 17.7% | 28.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.