← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University2.50+8.22vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+7.99vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.40vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.20+6.22vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania2.35+4.59vs Predicted
-
6Boston College3.07+0.81vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+1.65vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy2.80-0.22vs Predicted
-
9College of Charleston1.68+3.39vs Predicted
-
10Tufts University2.83-1.98vs Predicted
-
11Brown University2.89-3.37vs Predicted
-
12Dartmouth College3.23-5.46vs Predicted
-
13University of Rhode Island3.23-6.90vs Predicted
-
14University of Wisconsin2.09-3.55vs Predicted
-
15University of Miami2.27-5.03vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan1.07-1.53vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-6.94vs Predicted
-
18Jacksonville University0.94-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.22Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
-
9.99University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
-
8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
-
10.22Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
-
9.59University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
-
6.81Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
-
8.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
7.78U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
-
12.39College of Charleston1.680.0%1st Place
-
8.02Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
-
7.63Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
-
6.54Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
-
6.1University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
10.45University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
-
9.97University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
-
14.47University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
-
10.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
-
14.71Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Wood | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 9.4% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Belda | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.4% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 17.8% | 30.6% |
| John Ped | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Matthew King | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 17.4% | 35.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.