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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.83+6.96vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.89+5.67vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.43vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.50+4.97vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+3.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+3.77vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.23-0.84vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.27+1.97vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.87vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.80-1.92vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.23-4.64vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.09-0.91vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.07-6.29vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.20-3.99vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University0.94-0.19vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.07-1.51vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.35-7.18vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston1.68-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.96Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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7.67Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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8.97Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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6.16University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.97University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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9.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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6.36Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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11.09University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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6.71Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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10.01Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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14.81Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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14.49University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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12.2College of Charleston1.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansgar Jordan | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Olivia Belda | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| John Ped | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.1% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Matthew King | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 18.5% | 35.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 30.7% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.