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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.83+6.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.77vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+3.26vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.50+4.90vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.04+1.77vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin2.24+4.12vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.68+5.29vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University0.94+6.64vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-2.97vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.49-0.72vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.10vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.07-4.97vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-3.46vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.27-4.33vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.59vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.07-1.56vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-7.19vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.20-7.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.84Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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8.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.26Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.9Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.77Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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12.29College of Charleston1.680.0%1st Place
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14.64Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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6.03University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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11.1University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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7.03Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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9.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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8.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.44University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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9.81University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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10.08Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansgar Jordan | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Jack Murphy | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 9.3% |
| Matthew King | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 35.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Gray Benson | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Maks Groom | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 18.7% | 29.6% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.