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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+5.42vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.49+7.39vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.50+6.35vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+4.53vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.81+2.75vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.83+1.77vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.69+1.26vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.71vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.04-2.26vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-1.59vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.68+1.61vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.27-1.57vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.24-2.92vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.65-1.74vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.03-3.95vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-6.00vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-2.31vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College2.82-10.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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9.35Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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7.75Boston College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.77Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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8.26Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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6.74Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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12.61College of Charleston1.680.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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10.08University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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12.26Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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11.05University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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10.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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14.69University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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7.56Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Gray Benson | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Robert Hunter | 6.7% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Bridget Green | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Jack Murphy | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Emily Allen | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 13.9% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| John Ped | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 38.5% |
| William Michels | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.