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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.83+6.94vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+6.38vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.27vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.81+3.73vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.04+1.90vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.03+5.16vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.50+2.09vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69+0.18vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.91vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+0.04vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-2.22vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.24-1.41vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.65-0.61vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.49-5.16vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.82-7.33vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.07-1.39vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.27-6.76vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston1.68-5.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.94Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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8.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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6.27University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.73Boston College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.9Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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11.16University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.09Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.18Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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10.04University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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10.59University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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12.39Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.84U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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7.67Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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14.61University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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12.29College of Charleston1.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansgar Jordan | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Robert Hunter | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Jack Murphy | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Bridget Green | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| John Ped | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Samuel Bartel | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Emily Allen | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 13.7% |
| Gray Benson | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| William Michels | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 36.7% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.