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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+9.09vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+4.59vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.70+7.18vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.01+4.45vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.99+3.59vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23+1.75vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.46+4.00vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.80+1.40vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+0.62vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.23-2.10vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.22-3.19vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.04-3.15vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.12-5.07vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.07-1.77vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.50-4.30vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-3.67vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.16-4.63vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.83-8.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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6.59Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.18Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
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8.45Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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8.59Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.75University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.0Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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9.4U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.9Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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7.81Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.85Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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7.93Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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12.23Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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10.7Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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12.33St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.0%1st Place
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12.37Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.18Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| Jack DeNatale | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Walter Henry | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Jack Murphy | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Jack Egan | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Micky Munns | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 17.5% |
| Cameron Wood | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 16.5% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 17.6% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.