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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+5.27vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+6.41vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.20+5.38vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.07+0.93vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.70+1.21vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.03+2.78vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.91+2.28vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.80-2.20vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.44+2.13vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-2.62vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.520.00vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.06+0.92vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.65-2.83vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-3.90vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.01-2.28vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.01-0.25vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.77-6.95vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.24-6.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.41University of Pennsylvania2.180.0%1st Place
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8.38Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.93Boston College3.070.2%1st Place
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6.21Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.78Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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9.28Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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11.13Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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11.0Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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12.92University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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10.17North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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12.72Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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15.75SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
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10.05Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.73University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 10.6% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Bridget Groble | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 17.7% | 13.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 11.5% |
| Morgan Essex | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 50.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.