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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+5.12vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.75+7.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.80+2.88vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.43+3.01vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.03+3.60vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.77+3.67vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.07-2.14vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.18-0.03vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.65+1.14vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.52+0.88vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.24+0.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.06+0.81vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-2.19vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.01-1.67vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.91-5.91vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-8.93vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-6.62vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.01-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.12Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.98Tulane University1.750.0%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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7.01Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.6Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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9.67Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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4.86Boston College3.070.2%1st Place
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7.97University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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10.14North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.88Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.86University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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12.81University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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10.81Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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12.33Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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9.09Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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10.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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15.53SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Hanes | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 15.6% | 15.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 7.9% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 12.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 11.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Emily Bornarth | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 48.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.