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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54+10.34vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.55+5.27vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.89+7.02vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.75+6.16vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.89+0.84vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.11+6.87vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.33+0.97vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.55-0.98vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.69-2.52vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.17+2.84vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan2.03-1.66vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.44-0.08vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80-3.02vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.15-1.60vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-4.67vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.99-10.39vs Predicted
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172.64-10.09vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.0%1st Place
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7.27Jacksonville University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.02University of Vermont1.890.0%1st Place
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10.16College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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5.84Brown University2.890.1%1st Place
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12.87Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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7.97Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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7.02Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.48Harvard University2.690.1%1st Place
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12.84University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
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9.34University of Michigan2.030.1%1st Place
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11.92Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.98St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.0%1st Place
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12.4University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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5.61Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.912.640.1%1st Place
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12.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camille McGriff | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% |
| Charlotte Rose | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Grace Gear | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Grace Squires | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% |
| Olivia Belda | 13.3% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 17.2% |
| Gray Hemans | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Emma Kaneti | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 15.9% |
| Jenna Probst | 5.8% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.2% |
| Katherine Bennett | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 14.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dana Haig | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Molly Coghlin | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 15.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.