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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.55+6.27vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.11+11.16vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.33+5.06vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.75+6.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+5.21vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.55+1.01vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+3.04vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99-2.64vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.44+2.54vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan2.03-0.59vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.89-1.19vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.69-5.25vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-6.43vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-4.45vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.15-2.38vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.28-7.90vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-4.06vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.17-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.27Jacksonville University2.550.1%1st Place
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13.16Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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8.06Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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10.15College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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7.01Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.04St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.0%1st Place
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5.36Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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11.54Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.41University of Michigan2.030.1%1st Place
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9.81University of Vermont1.890.0%1st Place
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6.75Harvard University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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9.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.0%1st Place
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12.62University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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8.1Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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12.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.0%1st Place
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12.44University of Rhode Island1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Rose | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Aili Moffet | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 18.3% |
| Gray Hemans | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Grace Squires | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Bennett | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 13.5% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.4% |
| Jenna Probst | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Grace Gear | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Emma Kaneti | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Dana Haig | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 16.8% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Molly Coghlin | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 18.2% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.