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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.65+8.20vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.41+4.34vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.62+2.62vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.04+3.44vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.86+3.20vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+1.06vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+3.52vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.55-2.29vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.47-3.05vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39+0.36vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.45+2.54vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii1.09-0.42vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.57-3.78vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-7.11vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.77-2.65vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.08-1.35vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara0.56-3.80vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.49-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.2Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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6.34Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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5.62Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.44College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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8.2Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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7.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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10.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.71Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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5.95Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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10.36George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.54University of Rhode Island0.450.0%1st Place
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11.58University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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9.22Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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6.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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12.35Connecticut College0.770.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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13.2University of California at Santa Barbara0.560.0%1st Place
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13.17University of Michigan0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Allen | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Caroline Bayless | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Riley Kloc | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| Sarah Young | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Sadie Thomas | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 4.9% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 31.4% |
| harriet jessup | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 14.7% |
| Christiana Scheibner | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.