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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.39+6.29vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.69+4.06vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.69+7.18vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.98+4.62vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.66+8.63vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.95+2.82vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.11+5.18vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.29-0.60vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.63-2.95vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College0.86+3.42vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.43-3.98vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.08-3.37vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.79-3.63vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.69-4.39vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.93-6.10vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.66-5.91vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College1.64-6.81vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College0.72-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.29Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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6.06Yale University2.690.1%1st Place
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10.18Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.62Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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13.63Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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8.82Connecticut College1.950.1%1st Place
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12.18Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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7.4Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.05Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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13.42Dartmouth College0.860.0%1st Place
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7.02Dartmouth College2.430.1%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
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9.37Yale University1.790.1%1st Place
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9.61Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.9Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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10.09Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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10.19Dartmouth College1.640.0%1st Place
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13.53Dartmouth College0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Sih | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William George | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Connor Rosow | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 26.7% |
| William Bedford | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Mason Stang | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Lapham | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 15.7% | 20.6% |
| bella casaretto | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Bryan Trammell | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Alex Adams | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Connor Macken | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Clark Morris | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Wallace | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Connor Vogel | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 16.2% | 21.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.