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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.50+9.13vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+7.46vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+3.42vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.22+7.02vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12+2.42vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.75+2.93vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.62+2.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+3.28vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-2.07vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.11+1.87vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.65-1.51vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.75-2.73vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.23-6.14vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.12-2.73vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.57-5.38vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.07-8.33vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.82-8.23vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University1.06-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.13Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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6.42Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.02Brown University2.220.0%1st Place
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7.42Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.93Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.55Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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11.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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6.93University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.87University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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9.49Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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9.27Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.86Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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11.27Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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9.62Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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7.67Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.77Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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15.04Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Wood | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Jed Bell | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 9.6% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Will Priebe | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 13.4% | 44.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.