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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.38+2.69vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.64+3.28vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+2.81vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University0.62+3.64vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.30-1.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-1.04vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.15-0.66vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.08-1.49vs Predicted
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9Amherst College-0.74+1.21vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.40-6.33vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.30-1.62vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-1.86-0.19vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-1.93-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.69Roger Williams University2.380.2%1st Place
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5.28Brown University1.640.1%1st Place
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5.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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7.64Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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3.81Roger Williams University2.300.2%1st Place
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4.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Rhode Island1.150.1%1st Place
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6.51University of Vermont1.080.1%1st Place
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10.21Amherst College-0.740.0%1st Place
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3.67Roger Williams University2.400.2%1st Place
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9.38University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.300.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-1.860.0%1st Place
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11.9Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 19.6% | 16.8% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Adam | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Derry | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 18.7% | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 17.8% | 17.8% | 14.9% | 15.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| James Knowlton | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 31.2% | 23.4% | 7.4% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 19.2% | 19.3% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Myler | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 23.2% | 23.6% | 10.7% | 4.0% |
| Jack Sullivan | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 31.3% | 42.1% |
| Patrick Stevenson | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 13.7% | 29.1% | 46.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.