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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.08+5.64vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+3.79vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.64+2.28vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38-0.37vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.30-1.24vs Predicted
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6Amherst College-0.74+4.22vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-2.10vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.15-1.67vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University0.62-1.38vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.30-0.56vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-1.86+0.73vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.40-8.29vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-1.93-1.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64University of Vermont1.080.1%1st Place
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5.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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5.28Brown University1.640.1%1st Place
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3.63Roger Williams University2.380.2%1st Place
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3.76Roger Williams University2.300.2%1st Place
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10.22Amherst College-0.740.0%1st Place
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4.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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6.33University of Rhode Island1.150.1%1st Place
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7.62Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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9.44University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.300.0%1st Place
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11.73University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-1.860.0%1st Place
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3.71Roger Williams University2.400.2%1st Place
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11.95Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Potter | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Grant Adam | 7.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 19.4% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 20.1% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Knowlton | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 16.6% | 29.8% | 22.3% | 7.5% |
| Luke Zylinski | 13.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 17.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Kate Myler | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 22.7% | 25.1% | 12.9% | 4.0% |
| Jack Sullivan | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 7.9% | 13.4% | 32.9% | 38.5% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stevenson | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 12.5% | 26.8% | 49.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.