Race 1B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jack Roman 15.0% 13.5% 11.8% 14.2% 12.5% 12.3% 9.0% 6.7% 2.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley Whiteway 13.5% 14.2% 12.4% 13.0% 12.5% 10.7% 10.2% 6.7% 4.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Julia Conneely 8.6% 9.6% 11.6% 12.8% 11.5% 11.4% 11.4% 12.5% 6.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 16.4% 15.0% 14.4% 15.1% 12.3% 9.7% 8.0% 5.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Morris 5.0% 5.3% 4.9% 6.8% 7.5% 8.4% 10.6% 13.8% 17.1% 13.3% 6.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Alexandra Chigas 9.4% 11.3% 11.3% 10.8% 13.2% 10.8% 11.0% 10.1% 7.3% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Olivia Lowthian 8.6% 6.7% 11.2% 7.8% 9.0% 12.1% 12.7% 12.3% 11.5% 5.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Keller Morrison 3.6% 5.1% 3.9% 4.8% 5.7% 7.8% 11.9% 12.7% 19.4% 17.1% 7.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Nat Edmonds 1.5% 2.5% 2.1% 2.9% 3.7% 4.6% 3.7% 7.0% 16.1% 28.8% 20.1% 6.2% 0.8%
Tyler Nash 17.5% 15.8% 15.3% 11.3% 10.2% 11.0% 7.7% 6.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Andy Giaya 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 2.0% 4.1% 5.7% 13.1% 36.0% 25.9% 9.4%
Carissa Keung 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.6% 4.6% 9.9% 28.0% 53.0%
Maya Henning 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 4.6% 15.0% 38.1% 36.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.