Race 3B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tyler Nash 16.1% 15.3% 13.9% 13.7% 13.3% 10.5% 7.2% 5.7% 3.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexandra Chigas 9.5% 10.3% 10.6% 11.7% 12.2% 11.2% 11.7% 11.2% 7.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Quine 3.4% 4.1% 6.4% 7.5% 8.7% 9.4% 11.0% 14.3% 17.7% 12.6% 4.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Olivia Lowthian 7.3% 6.9% 8.5% 9.5% 10.1% 12.7% 12.7% 11.7% 11.5% 7.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Bradley Whiteway 13.9% 13.7% 13.2% 11.5% 11.8% 12.4% 9.9% 7.4% 4.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 16.9% 18.3% 15.3% 12.6% 10.0% 9.5% 8.9% 5.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Roman 15.6% 14.0% 12.9% 13.1% 12.8% 10.2% 8.6% 8.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nat Edmonds 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 3.7% 4.4% 8.0% 14.9% 29.6% 21.4% 4.8% 0.3%
Keller Morrison 3.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.8% 5.5% 7.9% 9.4% 14.8% 18.7% 17.3% 7.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Julia Conneely 11.1% 9.4% 11.2% 12.2% 10.7% 9.3% 13.8% 10.3% 7.2% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Maya Henning 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 3.0% 5.8% 19.1% 34.8% 34.4%
Andy Giaya 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 2.0% 5.5% 11.4% 33.2% 29.6% 11.5%
Carissa Keung 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 3.3% 11.2% 27.9% 53.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.