Race 4B

mt-hope-bay-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Julia Conneely 10.1% 10.5% 10.4% 11.0% 10.7% 11.4% 12.1% 11.3% 7.1% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 16.8% 15.6% 15.0% 13.0% 12.5% 9.4% 8.7% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexandra Chigas 8.7% 9.6% 11.8% 12.1% 11.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.5% 8.4% 3.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley Whiteway 13.7% 13.4% 11.5% 14.2% 12.1% 12.4% 9.0% 7.5% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Quine 5.9% 4.9% 6.0% 7.4% 8.6% 8.0% 10.8% 13.4% 17.1% 12.8% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Tyler Nash 15.6% 15.6% 16.8% 12.7% 10.8% 10.2% 8.1% 5.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Roman 15.6% 14.3% 12.3% 13.1% 12.9% 10.2% 9.7% 6.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Olivia Lowthian 6.7% 8.4% 9.1% 8.0% 9.6% 11.8% 12.7% 14.6% 11.5% 5.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Nat Edmonds 1.7% 2.6% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 5.0% 4.5% 7.8% 13.2% 30.7% 19.1% 6.4% 1.0%
Keller Morrison 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 5.2% 6.2% 7.6% 11.1% 13.3% 19.1% 16.2% 6.8% 1.7% 0.4%
Maya Henning 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 3.3% 6.2% 19.2% 34.9% 34.0%
Andy Giaya 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 2.7% 5.4% 11.0% 34.0% 29.5% 11.0%
Carissa Keung 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.6% 4.3% 11.8% 26.6% 53.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.