Race 5B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jack Roman 14.5% 14.6% 13.4% 14.0% 10.5% 12.6% 8.5% 7.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nat Edmonds 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 3.0% 4.7% 5.6% 8.4% 14.9% 38.4% 13.4% 2.9% 0.1%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 16.3% 15.8% 12.4% 15.5% 13.5% 9.8% 6.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Quine 4.3% 4.3% 6.7% 7.3% 7.5% 8.6% 13.1% 14.2% 17.6% 12.9% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Keller Morrison 4.2% 3.8% 5.0% 5.9% 6.0% 9.3% 10.1% 13.7% 19.7% 17.6% 4.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Bradley Whiteway 14.4% 13.5% 15.0% 12.4% 12.3% 8.7% 10.4% 7.0% 4.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexandra Chigas 10.2% 10.6% 10.8% 11.0% 10.9% 10.7% 13.6% 10.7% 8.2% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Nash 16.2% 16.5% 13.6% 13.0% 14.2% 10.1% 7.6% 4.6% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Julia Conneely 9.5% 10.6% 11.2% 9.8% 10.5% 14.1% 11.4% 10.5% 8.2% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Olivia Lowthian 8.0% 7.6% 9.0% 8.5% 10.9% 11.3% 11.1% 14.2% 12.4% 5.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Maya Henning 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 1.2% 2.4% 7.6% 40.6% 32.8% 12.9%
Ariana Schreibman 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 1.8% 11.8% 21.2% 63.6%
Carissa Keung 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 5.3% 24.7% 42.0% 23.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.