Race 3A

philly-fleet-race

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Calvin Schmid 47.3% 26.6% 15.5% 7.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Stewart 8.5% 9.9% 13.2% 14.5% 15.9% 12.8% 11.6% 6.7% 5.8% 0.7% 0.4%
Jasper Waldman 10.0% 14.1% 16.1% 16.4% 14.3% 11.7% 9.3% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Jonathan Kelly 7.9% 13.1% 12.2% 15.0% 16.7% 13.9% 9.8% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.0%
Ryan Magill 5.3% 7.1% 7.5% 9.5% 12.3% 12.7% 14.0% 14.1% 11.4% 5.2% 0.9%
Anish Jayewardene 3.0% 3.9% 7.5% 7.7% 9.7% 11.1% 15.1% 16.6% 12.3% 10.2% 2.9%
Ethan Deutsch 1.7% 4.3% 2.5% 3.6% 5.1% 7.2% 9.9% 14.9% 18.6% 23.5% 8.7%
Iain Shand 11.7% 15.1% 17.8% 16.9% 11.3% 12.3% 7.8% 4.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Henry Jensen 2.8% 3.5% 4.4% 5.3% 6.6% 10.0% 12.8% 13.8% 19.7% 15.4% 5.7%
Julia Priebke 1.2% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 4.4% 6.0% 6.3% 13.9% 17.2% 30.2% 12.4%
Vaughan Hood 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 3.0% 2.9% 7.6% 12.6% 69.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.