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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.62vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.93+4.40vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.50+1.80vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.63+3.33vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+4.07vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.41-0.91vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.24+1.50vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.18+3.38vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11-3.06vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-2.46vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.18-5.22vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.71-4.61vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.18-1.62vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.06-2.01vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.48-4.33vs Predicted
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16American University-2.12-1.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.4Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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4.8Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.33Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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9.07St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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5.09Georgetown University2.410.1%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Naval Academy1.240.0%1st Place
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11.38Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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5.94Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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7.54St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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5.78Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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7.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.710.1%1st Place
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11.38Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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11.99William and Mary-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.67Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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14.51American University-2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 23.5% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 14.6% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Corbett | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Wolff | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 18.9% | 35.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 8.4% | 82.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.