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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.62vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.11+3.87vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.24+5.48vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.50+0.81vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+2.49vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18-0.27vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.41-1.92vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93-1.47vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.00vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.71-2.79vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.18+0.39vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.63-4.40vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.06-0.99vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.18-2.61vs Predicted
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15American University-2.12-0.45vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.48-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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5.87Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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8.48U. S. Naval Academy1.240.0%1st Place
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4.81Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.49St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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5.73Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.08Georgetown University2.410.1%1st Place
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6.53Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.0St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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7.21St. Mary's College of Maryland1.710.1%1st Place
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11.39Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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7.6Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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12.01William and Mary-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.39Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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14.55American University-2.120.0%1st Place
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10.62Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 23.4% | 18.7% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.6% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 13.1% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Corbett | 12.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Miles Wolff | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 18.0% | 26.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 5.3% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 19.7% | 34.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 18.0% | 26.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 9.7% | 82.2% | 0.0% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 20.4% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.