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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.24+7.44vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.41+3.03vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.93+3.44vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.48+6.64vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+0.83vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.38vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.71+0.06vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.11-2.03vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.50-4.22vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.63-2.51vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-3.48vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08-2.70vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.18-1.52vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.06-2.12vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.18-3.52vs Predicted
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16American University-2.12-1.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.44U. S. Naval Academy1.240.0%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University2.410.1%1st Place
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6.44Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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10.64Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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5.83Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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3.62U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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7.06St. Mary's College of Maryland1.710.1%1st Place
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5.97Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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4.78Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.49Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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7.52St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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9.3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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11.48Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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11.88William and Mary-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.48Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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14.51American University-2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin MacGillivray | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jack Corbett | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 22.0% | 17.6% | 16.7% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Wolff | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 9.0% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 12.9% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Sam Dutilly | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 32.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 83.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.