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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.11+4.88vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.18+3.57vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.41+2.09vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.30vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.71+2.32vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.58vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.50-2.32vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.18+3.16vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.63-1.49vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.06+1.88vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.48-0.25vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.18-0.84vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08-3.99vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-7.55vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.24-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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5.57Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.09Georgetown University2.410.1%1st Place
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3.7U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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7.32St. Mary's College of Maryland1.710.0%1st Place
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7.58St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University2.500.2%1st Place
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11.16Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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7.51Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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11.88William and Mary-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.75Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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11.16Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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9.01St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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6.45Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.43U. S. Naval Academy1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Corbett | 12.3% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 20.8% | 18.8% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Miles Wolff | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 15.4% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 23.2% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Dutilly | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 39.2% | 0.0% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 20.9% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 23.2% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.