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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.28+6.39vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+7.80vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.91+2.38vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.70+2.18vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+1.93vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.30+1.54vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.73+2.67vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.33-0.77vs Predicted
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9McGill University0.83+3.50vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-1.07vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.92-5.66vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.44-1.40vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.52-2.68vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.03-5.73vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61-4.85vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.71-7.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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9.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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5.38Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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6.18Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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6.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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7.54Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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9.67Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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7.23Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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12.5McGill University0.830.0%1st Place
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8.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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5.34Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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10.6Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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10.32Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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8.27Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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10.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.0%1st Place
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9.76Tufts University1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 13.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Emily Bornarth | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Sarah Burn | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Sophie Heldman | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 31.7% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Emma Cowles | 14.5% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 13.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| Emily Scherer | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Annika Fedde | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.