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📊 Prediction Accuracy
6.2%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+4.21vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+6.70vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+7.05vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.52+6.50vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.30+2.53vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+4.04vs Predicted
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7McGill University0.83+5.54vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.33-1.83vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-3.11vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.03-2.42vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.73-2.45vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.71-3.30vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.28-6.53vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.91-9.79vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.70-9.85vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.44-6.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.21Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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10.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.0%1st Place
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10.5Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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7.53Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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10.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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12.54McGill University0.830.0%1st Place
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7.17Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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8.58Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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9.55Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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9.7Tufts University1.710.0%1st Place
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7.47Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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5.21Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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6.15Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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10.7Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 13.6% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| Emily Scherer | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 11.4% |
| Sarah Burn | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.4% |
| Sophie Heldman | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 33.4% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| Annika Fedde | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.