Race 1A

barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sam Bonauto 15.1% 15.7% 13.1% 10.8% 12.1% 7.6% 7.1% 7.0% 3.8% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
James Paul 16.8% 16.3% 14.0% 11.3% 9.7% 8.5% 7.5% 5.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Nicholas Hurley 7.2% 6.1% 7.6% 8.3% 8.1% 8.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.4% 7.9% 7.9% 7.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.5%
Oliver Hurwitz 15.5% 15.3% 11.4% 10.5% 10.1% 9.5% 8.8% 6.3% 5.5% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jonathan Chance 6.2% 7.0% 6.3% 6.8% 6.1% 8.0% 7.7% 8.3% 10.3% 9.1% 8.1% 7.0% 5.4% 3.3% 0.4%
Shea Smith 8.0% 8.9% 8.0% 7.4% 10.1% 12.5% 9.4% 8.0% 8.6% 6.5% 4.8% 4.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Alex Kitay 3.0% 2.6% 1.9% 3.6% 3.0% 2.5% 4.5% 4.1% 6.2% 8.9% 8.2% 10.3% 14.5% 16.3% 10.4%
Sam Monaghan 6.8% 6.4% 8.5% 9.1% 7.5% 7.2% 8.7% 9.7% 7.9% 9.1% 7.8% 5.7% 3.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Jack Flores 6.5% 7.2% 8.6% 9.4% 10.0% 7.9% 9.5% 9.2% 9.3% 6.2% 6.1% 5.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Lochlann Ludwig 2.3% 2.2% 3.2% 1.8% 3.1% 5.0% 4.6% 6.1% 5.9% 6.4% 9.3% 10.8% 15.0% 14.1% 10.2%
Ryan Potter 3.3% 3.6% 4.7% 5.3% 4.2% 6.2% 6.9% 6.6% 9.1% 8.2% 7.8% 12.3% 9.7% 7.6% 4.5%
Adam Strobridge 4.4% 2.9% 5.2% 7.9% 6.5% 6.0% 6.3% 8.8% 7.6% 10.9% 10.8% 7.7% 8.1% 5.9% 1.0%
Harry Stevenson 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 5.4% 7.5% 11.4% 20.1% 35.0%
Grace Cannon 3.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.3% 5.0% 6.6% 5.7% 6.5% 6.5% 10.1% 10.8% 10.5% 11.6% 6.6% 4.2%
Sean Lund 1.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 4.1% 6.5% 7.0% 11.2% 20.4% 32.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.