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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.13+3.80vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.72+6.94vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.75+2.84vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire0.35+6.18vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.43-0.83vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.98-0.77vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.43-2.94vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.14-0.23vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College1.29-1.72vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy0.01+1.19vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.21-3.35vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.18-4.12vs Predicted
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13Bates College-0.32-0.93vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College0.42-4.08vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.87-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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8.94Dartmouth College0.720.0%1st Place
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5.84University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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10.18University of New Hampshire0.350.0%1st Place
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4.17Dartmouth College2.430.2%1st Place
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5.23Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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4.06Tufts University2.430.2%1st Place
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7.77Bowdoin College1.140.1%1st Place
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7.28Dartmouth College1.290.1%1st Place
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11.19Maine Maritime Academy0.010.0%1st Place
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7.65University of Vermont1.210.1%1st Place
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7.88Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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12.07Bates College-0.320.0%1st Place
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9.92Bowdoin College0.420.0%1st Place
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13.04University of New Hampshire-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 14.4% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Vogel | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Max Sigel | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| bella casaretto | 16.8% | 17.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 18.2% | 17.4% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Madeline Koelbel | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 19.8% | 13.4% |
| Anna Olsen | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Liam Lawless | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Amanda Yolles | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 21.4% | 24.6% |
| Charlie Apolinsky | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 5.0% |
| Charles Wheeler | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 19.6% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.