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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.09+6.35vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+5.92vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.55+6.63vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.09+7.04vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+3.92vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32+0.28vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.88+0.99vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.18-1.24vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+2.73vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.89-1.75vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.38+2.82vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.02+3.19vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.05-1.74vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04-2.95vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.37-4.98vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.51-10.29vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.93-8.98vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.33-7.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.35University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University1.550.0%1st Place
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11.04SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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6.28Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.99University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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11.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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8.25Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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13.82Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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15.19SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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11.26Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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11.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
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10.02Cornell University1.370.0%1st Place
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5.71Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.02Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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10.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gavula | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Will Donovan | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| John Vail | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 5.5% |
| Thomas Green | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Brook Wood | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 5.8% |
| Connor Bennett | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 18.2% | 22.7% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 43.3% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 6.1% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.8% |
| Sophia Peck | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Collin Porter | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.