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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+6.91vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+7.21vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+5.17vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.93+3.68vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.37+4.96vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32+0.32vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.05+4.38vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.09-0.90vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.89-1.11vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.09+1.47vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.55-1.51vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.51-6.08vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.33-2.93vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.18-7.40vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.34vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04-4.56vs Predicted
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17Cornell University0.38-3.09vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.02-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.68Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.96Cornell University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.32Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.38Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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7.1University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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7.89Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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11.47SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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9.49Fordham University1.550.1%1st Place
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5.92Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.330.0%1st Place
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6.6University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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11.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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11.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
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13.91Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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14.84SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Vanderhorst | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Green | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Sophia Peck | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Connor Bennett | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| John Vail | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Will Donovan | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Collin Porter | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brook Wood | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 7.1% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 23.4% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.