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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.93+6.88vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04+9.52vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+3.30vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.88+3.78vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.09+2.00vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.09+5.08vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.33+3.10vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.55+1.13vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.89-1.25vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-2.14vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.73+1.53vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-0.06vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.47+0.16vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-5.44vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.51-9.51vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.05-4.67vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.18-10.12vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.02-3.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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11.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
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6.3Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.78University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.0University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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11.08SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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10.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.330.0%1st Place
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9.13Fordham University1.550.0%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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7.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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12.53Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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11.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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13.16Cornell University0.470.0%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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5.49Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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11.33Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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6.88University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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14.72SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Gavula | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| John Vail | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| Collin Porter | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Will Donovan | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Connor Bennett | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 12.6% |
| Brook Wood | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 8.5% |
| Ava Grace Sannino | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 19.1% |
| Thomas Green | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 11.9% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Sisk | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 5.9% |
| Torrey Chisari | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 17.4% | 34.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.