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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.51+4.73vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.88+6.03vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.09+4.19vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.05+7.11vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+2.67vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32+0.16vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+1.82vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.09+2.98vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.73+3.46vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-2.16vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.33-0.80vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.55-2.41vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-5.33vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.84vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.13-8.17vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.04vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04-5.63vs Predicted
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18Cornell University0.47-4.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.73Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.03University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.19University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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11.11Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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7.67Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.16Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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10.98SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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12.46Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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10.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.330.0%1st Place
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9.59Fordham University1.550.0%1st Place
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7.67Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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11.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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14.96SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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11.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
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13.22Cornell University0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lobaugh | 11.8% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Green | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| John Vail | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 9.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Collin Porter | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Will Donovan | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Connor Bennett | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Brook Wood | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 40.2% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Ava Grace Sannino | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.