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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.88+7.05vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.09+5.26vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.33+7.33vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.93+3.62vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+3.79vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.05+5.24vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32-0.79vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04+3.13vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.89-1.23vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+1.76vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.27vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.73+0.74vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.02+1.67vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.55-5.12vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.09-4.02vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.47-2.55vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.13-9.97vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.51-12.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.05University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.26University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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10.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.330.0%1st Place
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7.62Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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11.24Fordham University1.050.0%1st Place
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6.21Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
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7.77Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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11.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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7.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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12.74Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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14.67SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.550.1%1st Place
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10.98SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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13.45Cornell University0.470.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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5.37Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Collin Porter | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Green | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 11.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% |
| Connor Bennett | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Brook Wood | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 14.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 36.4% |
| Will Donovan | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| John Vail | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% |
| Ava Grace Sannino | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.