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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+4.01vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.86vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.82+6.22vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+4.44vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+3.41vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.59+7.38vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.80vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.48vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.68-1.63vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.20+2.87vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.28-2.57vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.84vs Predicted
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13Florida State University1.69-2.25vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.49vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-5.09vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.73-6.75vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.17-5.12vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.68-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.01Harvard University3.1815.2%1st Place
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6.86Brown University2.739.8%1st Place
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9.22George Washington University1.825.7%1st Place
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8.44University of Rhode Island2.786.1%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University2.385.9%1st Place
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13.38Northeastern University1.591.6%1st Place
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9.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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9.48University of Pennsylvania1.773.9%1st Place
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7.37Roger Williams University2.688.0%1st Place
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12.87Connecticut College1.201.7%1st Place
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8.43Tulane University2.286.6%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Naval Academy2.609.0%1st Place
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10.75Florida State University1.693.9%1st Place
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8.51St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.7%1st Place
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9.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.0%1st Place
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9.25Webb Institute1.734.2%1st Place
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11.88Eckerd College1.172.4%1st Place
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14.25University of Michigan0.681.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.2% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Bridget Green | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 21.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 16.9% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Peter Foley | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.9% |
| Jack Homa | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 28.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.