← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University3.22+1.47vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy2.76+0.99vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University1.93+1.15vs Predicted
-
4Christopher Newport University1.63+0.59vs Predicted
-
5Washington College2.11-0.93vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.47Georgetown University3.220.3%1st Place
-
2.99U. S. Naval Academy2.760.2%1st Place
-
4.15Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
-
4.59Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
-
4.07Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
-
2.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 29.9% | 27.8% | 20.8% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| Gavin McJones | 22.7% | 19.6% | 19.7% | 18.6% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 18.1% | 24.4% | 25.4% |
| Brian Fox | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 16.4% | 22.2% | 38.9% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.0% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 19.1% | 22.6% | 23.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 24.4% | 24.4% | 21.0% | 16.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.