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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+2.50vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.25+5.66vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.82+2.93vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+1.10vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.75+1.02vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.69+3.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+1.01vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.76+1.26vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.15+2.58vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.46-3.04vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.52-0.65vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-2.51vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.69-3.23vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.81-8.01vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.07-0.47vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26-2.05vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University-0.26-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.66Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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5.93Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.1Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.02Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.86Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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9.26Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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11.58University of Rhode Island1.150.0%1st Place
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6.96Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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10.35Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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9.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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9.77Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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5.99Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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14.53Salve Regina University-0.070.0%1st Place
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13.95Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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15.06Fairfield University-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 24.5% | 18.8% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 13.1% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Olin Guck | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 3.8% |
| Walter Henry | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| William George | 3.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 24.6% | 31.6% |
| John Van Zanten | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 19.4% | 21.2% | 19.7% |
| Andrew White | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 23.2% | 40.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.