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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+2.56vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+4.06vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+5.12vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+2.03vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.82+0.80vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.46+1.27vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+2.61vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.15+3.29vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.25-1.04vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.10-4.97vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.69-1.12vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.05-3.51vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.69-3.17vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.52-3.55vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.07-0.44vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26-2.03vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University-0.26-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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6.06Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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6.03Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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5.8Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.27Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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9.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Rhode Island1.150.0%1st Place
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7.96Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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5.03Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.88Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.49Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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9.83Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.45Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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14.56Salve Regina University-0.070.0%1st Place
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13.97Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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15.08Fairfield University-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 24.7% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.7% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Olin Guck | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 3.8% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William George | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| John Eastman | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 24.9% | 31.7% |
| John Van Zanten | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| Andrew White | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 23.8% | 39.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.