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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.33+5.72vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.28+4.92vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+4.19vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.76+7.11vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.92-0.99vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.30+0.05vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.16+2.86vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.29-2.13vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.44-0.15vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.82-5.74vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19-1.33vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.70-7.33vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.71-5.04vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.03-7.21vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.52-1.28vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-7.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.72Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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6.92Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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8.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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12.11University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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5.01Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.05Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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10.86Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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6.87Harvard University2.290.1%1st Place
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9.85Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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5.26Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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5.67Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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8.96Tufts University1.710.0%1st Place
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7.79Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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14.72Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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9.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray Hemans | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 24.2% | 13.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 13.7% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 5.6% |
| Marbella Marlo | 8.3% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 13.3% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Celia Houston | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 5.2% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Annika Fedde | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 12.9% | 66.7% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.