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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+5.23vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.83+7.29vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.73+6.82vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.67+5.67vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.31+2.20vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38+0.93vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.69vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.06+0.10vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.69-3.19vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.69-0.05vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.70+2.51vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.43-0.89vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.38-2.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-4.20vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.09-6.97vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.39-9.09vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.73-3.57vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.18-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.23Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.29Brown University1.830.0%1st Place
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9.82Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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9.67Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.2Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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6.93Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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8.1Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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5.81Yale University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.95Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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13.51Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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11.11Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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10.82Roger Williams University1.380.0%1st Place
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9.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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8.03Yale University2.090.1%1st Place
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6.91Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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13.43Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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15.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Thomas Styron | 8.2% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| George Higham | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Mateo Farina | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% |
| Luke Hosek | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Sam Tobin | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 18.8% | 15.3% |
| Luke Slosar | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 49.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.