Race 3A

yale-z420

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jack Roman 12.3% 13.0% 11.7% 10.1% 10.4% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 5.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5%
William Bailey 9.3% 9.3% 8.9% 7.9% 9.1% 8.5% 8.5% 9.2% 9.7% 7.1% 5.1% 3.6% 2.6% 1.2%
Liam Gronda 3.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.5% 5.1% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 8.1% 12.4% 11.4% 13.8% 13.5%
William Bedford 9.8% 11.0% 11.6% 11.4% 9.6% 10.5% 7.6% 8.3% 6.4% 5.4% 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.2%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 11.6% 14.1% 14.0% 11.4% 9.1% 9.3% 8.1% 7.1% 5.1% 4.7% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Harris Padegs 10.5% 8.5% 9.5% 10.2% 10.5% 9.5% 8.7% 8.0% 6.4% 7.9% 4.0% 3.7% 2.2% 0.4%
Sam Rifkind-Brown 3.6% 3.2% 4.8% 3.8% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.1% 7.2% 8.7% 10.3% 10.9% 13.5% 12.3%
Ximena Escobar 10.3% 11.1% 8.5% 9.6% 9.2% 8.8% 9.6% 8.1% 6.7% 6.0% 4.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8%
Fritz Baldauf 5.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.8% 7.4% 8.1% 9.3% 10.5% 10.3% 10.7% 9.4% 7.4%
Katherine McNamara 11.8% 11.3% 11.5% 10.6% 10.3% 8.6% 9.0% 8.6% 6.8% 4.3% 3.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Jean-Michel Bus 3.6% 3.9% 2.3% 4.8% 4.8% 7.6% 6.9% 6.0% 8.1% 9.7% 10.9% 11.3% 9.1% 11.0%
Izzy Wu-Karr 3.9% 3.6% 4.2% 4.9% 5.4% 5.6% 7.1% 8.4% 9.7% 9.4% 10.1% 9.8% 8.9% 9.0%
Beck Lorsch 2.7% 1.8% 3.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.7% 3.5% 4.5% 7.2% 8.9% 9.9% 11.8% 15.8% 20.7%
Caroline Keeffe-Jones 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.9% 5.0% 6.4% 5.4% 8.9% 11.9% 18.4% 22.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.